BLOCKDESK PRODUCTS
BLOCK TRADER FORECAST (BTF) CHARTS

BTF Charts:  Evaluate upside and downside potential for a single stock

BLOCK TRADER FORECAST (BTF) CHARTS show, for one company at a time, the block traders' current expectations of a future price range for that stock.  These expectations are plotted with a two-year history of similar forecasts, made weekly.  Market prices are updated daily shortly after the close of trading, expectations weekly.

• Where it is low in, or below the range, the plot appears in green.
• Where the price is at the top of the range or above, the plot is red.
• Where the price is high, but still in the range, the plot is yellow.

A BTF Chart does not show a conventional hi-low-close stock price history.  It is a history of price range forecasts by professionals who make the market in the stock.

A BTF Chart differs from a normal Hi-Lo-Close bar chart in several important ways:

1. Each vertical bar is a forecast price range, made at the time the price (the big square dot in the bar) was recorded.  This forecast is made by the block traders after the day's close, as they prepare for the next day's opening.  The forecast bars on each BTF chart are one week apart in time and go back for two years.

We report their forecasts weekly, typically Thursdays. Market prices are updated daily at the closing price, shown by a dashed bar.

2.  The size of the bars indicates how much uncertainty the block traders have about a stock's future. For example:

• Big integrated oil companies and utilities usually have ranges that are small in proportion to their price
  
  
• Unseasoned biotech, electronic, and software companies often have larger ranges.

3.  What is important is where the price lies in the forecast range.  What you should watch for are those points in time when a stock is priced near the extremes of its forecast range.  When the price is at or above the top of the range, the block traders are indicating it is fully valued.  When at the bottom, they suggest it is cheap.

Extremes of price are color coded to help point them out. The colors should be familiar to any driver:

• Weeks where the price is low relative to expectations are shown in green.
  
• When price is getting high relative to expectations, the data is plotted in yellow.
  
• When price leaves very little upside the plot is in red.

Note how the forecasts change as time passes and prices change. The pros adapt to changing circumstances and new information, just as you do.  But prices typically change more than expectations; it's why Blockdesk information can help you make lucrative value decisions.

After looking at stock timing and specific price targets using BTF Charts, you can use Reward: Risk (R:R) Charts to find those stocks with the best reward-to-risk tradeoffs.

For more on BTF Charts and instructions on how to access this product, take the Blockdesk 101 guided tour.